In order, the list reads like this: Jacob deGrom, Gerrit Cole, Corbin Burnes, Trevor Bauer, Yu Darvish, Shane Mcclanahan, John Means, Joe Musgrove, Julio Urías, Tyler Glasnow and … 24-year-old Royals starter Carlos Hernández?
Indeed.
Among all starters in Major League Baseball, Hernández, a right-hander from Venezuela, ranks 11th in terms of “stuff.” The long-used baseball term highlights the quality of a pitcher’s arsenal. And now, thanks to Stuff+, a metric The Athletic’s Eno Sarris created alongside Max Bay, we can quantify it.
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Hence, the list. Hernández’s name hides alongside some of the best in baseball, almost like a four-leaf clover nestles within a patch of grass. You don’t expect it to be there, but it sits sneakily, as is the case with the 6-foot-4, 245-pound flamethrower.
Why does Hernández rank so highly by Stuff+? What does this mean for him and the Royals? First, here’s the grade on each of his pitches (100 is average):
To understand how the numbers are compiled, you have to dig deep into each pitch, and Hernández’s sinker is an obvious place to start. Radar guns would tell you the pitch averages 97.9 mph, and that would be solid enough. These days, though, we know that a pitcher’s extension can affect how hitters perceive the velocity coming at them.
The farther out a pitcher releases a pitch, the quicker that pitch arrives at the hitter and the tougher it is to barrel up.
Baseball Savant has recorded 789 MLB pitchers this season, and Hernández’s extension (6.8 feet) ranks 71st. That’s not in the upper echelon. But because a Hernandez fastball is already sizzling, the release gives him an averaged perceived velocity that ranks 10th highest in baseball.
Juxtaposing Hernández with Miami Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara can crystallize this concept a bit. Alcantara averages 97.7 mph on his fastball, but his extension is only 6 feet, so it’s easier for hitters to see. Given this effect, the only starters to throw more fastballs perceived at 101 mph or faster than Hernández are deGrom and Glasnow.
That leads to whiffs like this:
And here’s the thing: Hernández’s success on nights such as Wednesday in Chicago — when Hernández pitched five innings of one-hit ball with six strikeouts — is not limited to velocity. He also has a better-than-average curveball that impressed even White Sox manager Tony La Russa.
“He was effective against everybody,” La Russa said. “He’s impressive as a pitcher because he’s not just throwing with good velocity. He’s got a big breaking ball he has command of, and he has a nice changeup. He’s a pitcher. He’s not just out there firing.”
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In terms of Stuff+, one of the most important measurements is the velocity difference between a pitcher’s fastball and his secondary pitches. Essentially, a pitcher’s job is to throw off a hitter’s timing. A major difference in velocity can throw even the best hitting mechanics out of whack.
Hernández’s curveball arrives about 15 mph slower than his fastball does. And because he can command both pitches, some of the best hitters in the world can look overmatched.
For example, here’s José Abreu against Hernández’s curveball on Wednesday:
Then there’s the changeup — another plus pitch, per Stuff+.
Hernández’s changeup averages 87.4 mph, per Baseball Savant, providing another major velocity difference between it and Hernández’s fastball. Hitters are only batting .222 against the changeup. White Sox batter Gavin Sheets painted a nice picture of how difficult it can be to hit here:
We saved the best for last. Hernández’s slider drops 36.4 inches per Stuff+, which is 1.7 inches more than the average slider. He’s thrown the pitch 118 times in 2021, and hitters have whiffed at 46 percent of the ones they’ve swung at. Once again, the velocity difference between the pitch and his fastball (about 15 mph) is a factor.
The effect propels these types of swings:
When asked about Hernández after Wednesday’s game, Royals manager Mike Matheny said: “You’re talking four plus pitches. I thought today was the best changeup we’ve seen. I don’t think he even got to the slider until the third inning. Then he realized that was going to be really good. He was throwing 2-0 curveballs, 3-1 curveballs, to go along with 100 mph. I mean, that’s … ”
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Matheny paused on the Zoom call and scrunched his face. He then shook his head.
“It amazes me,” he said.
Even Triple-A pitching coach Dane Johnson, who worked with Hernández earlier this season, was in awe of how effective Hernández was with four pitches Wednesday. But he wasn’t surprised. Each day Hernández showed up to Werner Park in Papillion, Neb., and the alternate site in Springdale, Ark., before that, Johnson noticed how quickly Hernández adjusted.
“He was attentive and not scared to put himself out there to do the things we felt were necessary,” Johnson said. “He would grab ahold of things both on the side and in games. It was a pleasure working with him.”
As Hernández develops, the focus is going to be on command. Johnson and Hernández worked tirelessly to streamline the way the pitcher’s lower half flowed down the mound. The more consistently his body moved, the more consistently his release point would be.
As Sarris pointed out, Hernández’s command has hovered near the reliever level (around a 91 Command+, where 90 is traditionally a marker differentiating relievers and starters). More mound time, though, should only help him gain a feel with his potent stuff as the months and years pass.
Jackson Kowar adds a slider, regains command
Triple-A pitching coach Dane Johnson watched Kowar’s outings with the big-league club and was convinced: “That just wasn’t him. I mean, it wasn’t even close to him.”
Kowar wasn’t consistent with his fastball. He struggled to keep the pitch down but also elevate it when needed. He wasn’t landing his changeup in the strike zone the way he typically had. All of it made Kowar predictable and led to him allowing 10 earned runs in five big-league innings.
Johnson didn’t notice any residual effect from Kowar’s struggles when the right-hander returned to Triple-A Omaha.
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He looked like the guy that was going to get to work,” Johnson said.
The first order of business was fastball consistency. To find it, they focused on his delivery.
“It’s about getting down the hill and staying on his lane,” Johnson said. “He gets upper-half dominant, working left to right with the upper half, coming out of his deliveries early. … It’s more just a feeling of getting down the hill, staying closed all the way down, firing his hips and upper half, working north to south rather than east to west.”
Johnson also placed emphasis on Kowar being able to land his fastball in the strike zone. Then they worked on adding an entirely new pitch: the slider.
“His fastball and changeup go from left to right — and particularly his changeup,” Johnson said. “We wanted him to have something going from right to left. He’s showing a decent feel to it.”
Here’s one from Wednesday night:
Johnson reiterated that learning a new pitch doesn’t happen overnight. Players will tinker with grips. They have, though, landed on one that is paying off.
“This is the one that works the best because it comes off like a fastball, then goes right to left,” Johnson said. “The whole thing is getting him to understand how the pitch is supposed to work, what it’s supposed to do, what lane it’s supposed to stay on, how it’s supposed to break and end up at home plate, and where he’s supposed to start it. It’s an ‘I want it now’-type of thing, but as long as the shapes are right, the feel and strike zone ability will come.”
Brady Singer threw 10 changeups on Wednesday night
Kowar’s college teammate, Brady Singer, has been with Triple-A Omaha for about a week on a rehab assignment. On July 20, the Royals placed him on the injured list with right shoulder fatigue. By July 30, Singer was back on the mound, pitching for the StormChasers in Toledo.
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His first start didn’t go splendidly: He lasted 1 1/3 innings and allowed five runs. Johnson, though, said Singer was just getting back into the flow of things, and that showed Wednesday night. Singer threw 57 pitches, Johnson said, relying heavily on his fastball and slider. That said, he did throw his changeup.
Here’s proof:
Johnson said Singer threw 10 of them total.
“He took about a mile or two (mph) off the changeup, which is key because it’s firm,” Johnson said.
Similar to the other young Royals pitchers gaining confidence with new pitches in their arsenal (Kris Bubic’s curveball, Daniel Lynch’s changeup, etc.), Johnson said it will take time. Throwing the pitch is key, though. And Singer is doing exactly that.
(Photo of Carlos Hernández: Nuccio DiNuzzo / Getty Images)
Alec Lewis is a staff writer covering the Minnesota Vikings for The Athletic. He grew up in Birmingham, Ala., and has written for Yahoo, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and the Kansas City Star, among many other places. Follow Alec on Twitter @alec_lewis
